Mickey Madison, Conclave and more

Spoiler Alert: Crazy, Unexpeed Oscar Season? Still crazy. Still unexpected.

Fresh in one or two panch weekends where “Anora” cleaned the PGA and DGA Awards, BAFTA decided to shake the pot with his own taking on the race. If history tells us anything, it is BAFTA There may be either a crystal ball or red herring.

In 2024, each BAFTA went to win the winner (except visual impacts) to win the Oscar, making it the most future year in the recent memory. However, a year ago, BAFTA charts his own path – only “everything everywhere” was repeated by Editor Paul Rogers. OscarTherefore, with the closure of the final Oscar voting on Tuesday, 18 February, let’s break the major takeaways from BAFTA’s curveball and what could they mean for the biggest night of Hollywood.

Can “Conclave” bother the best picture?

Edward Burger’s “Conclave” emerged as BAFTA Champion, home’s best film, customized screenplay (Peter Strugh), Editing (Nick Miserson) and outstanding British film. Suddenly, this religious thriller looks like the only serious challenge for “Anora”.

But here is rubbing: “Conclave” lacks a directorial enrollment in the Oscar, historically a major obstacle. Its best shot? A 2012 “Argo” -Style win, where it wins screenplay, editing and picture. This is not impossible, but it is still a bit difficult. This bizarre Ralph Fiene State is also that I am obsessed with it: every time he is nominated for the Oscar, his film has the best picture (1993’s “list of Shindleer” and “The English Patient” of 1996 ” ) Wins. In “The Heart Locker” (2009), he was added to his role, he is currently in the 19-way tie to appear in the best picture winners with three. If the “conclave” wins, Fynena will set a record, which will become the only actor with credit roles in four.

However, “Anora” DGA, PGA, the choice of critics and WGA claims almost unbeatable combinations of win – a four that has only failed to convert to Oscar history once (forgiven, “Brockback Mountain”).

So, does BAFTa indicate a “Conclave” coup? Or is it just another case of the British that is doing the British voting before Hollywood?

Did Mickey Madison change the game of Best Actress?

Across the pond, BAFTA gave a stunner – Mickey Madison harassed Demi Moore, a heavy favorite actress to win the leading actress for her title role in Sean Baker’s dramade “Anora”.

This was the youngest winner since Scarlett Johansson’s “Lost in Translation” at the age of 25, winning Madison at the age of 20, at the age of 20, at the age of 20. But what does this mean for Oscar Knight? Three landscapes:

In particular, a single acting victory for the best actress has not paired with the best pictures, directors and screenplay since Dianne Katon for “Annie Hall” (1977), coincidentally, the last time all the five best actress nominees nomine Pictures were from nominees.

The bottom line is that Madison’s victory keeps things spicy.

So … what is happening in the original script?

Kiran Kulkin expected a supportive actor win for “a real pain”, but the real shocker? “Anora” lost in the original script – and the champion of the choice of critics “The Substance”, but not for Jessie Easenberg’s film.

Why this is the case here: Three separate prominent pioneers (BAFTA, Critics Choice, WGA) have honored three different films. Historically, when there is such anarchy, the best picture becomes a tiebreaker.

This means one of the two things:

It is a division of the past, such as “Koda” defeated “The Power of the Dog” in BAFTA or “Manchester by the C” surprised “La La Land” in 2016.

Are Oscars closed to win broady, Kalkin and Reldana?

After winning a Golden Globe, the choice of critics and BAFTA, Adrian Body (“The Cruelist”), Kiran Kulkin (“A Real Pain”) and Zo Saladana (“Emilia Perease”) look like certain things.

If any of them takes a relaxation, no actor loses an Oscar after sweeping all four major television awards. But the priorities of SAG can sometimes tilt the populist favorite (wicked “and” a full unknown “.

Historically, the top two of the two most nominated SAG films win at least one. Some?It can be bad news for “a complete unknown” until Timothy is napped in the disciple or “wicked”, it can bring home to dress or Ariana Grande.

Who is it In fact Win the best director?

This category is the place where the chaos meter spikes.

On paper, Brady Corbett (“The Brutilist”) looks like a real contender after winning the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. But quite funny, history is not towards him. No director has won an Oscar with only one BAFTA and Globe victory, and without winning any of the five other forearm without the film.

Meanwhile, Sean Baker (“Anora”) has been DGA and WGA-Vigner and the strongest picture of the figures is the contenders. Therefore, until we are not for the victory of Mike Nichols-style, where the Baker takes the director completely, while his film loses the best picture (see: 1967’s “The Graduate” “” in the Heat of The Night “losing to”), the most similar landscape is: if the Baker winning director, “Anora” is taking the best pictures. Or, if the Corbett director, “Anora” or “Conclave” wins, he can still take the picture – but you should be a factor in winning the screenplay. It is a game of mixture and match, and now, mathematics baker is in favor, but I am ready for more surprise.

Did BAFTa’s best casting predict SAG ENSIBAL Winner?

The short answer is no.

BAFTA’s best casting category never matched SAG Ensembal winner. Case in point: previous winners include “Joker” (2019), “West Side Story” (2021) and “Elvis” (2022) – none of whom won the top prize of SAG (or even enrolled There were also).

“Anora,” with “a full unknown” and “conclave”, it can bend well for “wicked”, which goes into SAG enrollment. But if the “Conclave” takes the award, it can be a final indication. It is real spoiling, and then we flip a coin at night.

Is “Dune 2” sound category a lock?

Dennis Villainuway’s “Dune: Part Two” won BAFTA’s sound category to pair her visual effects. But before you lock it, remember: music and music biopics often dominate this category at the Oscars (see: “Bohemian rapsodi,” “Whiplash,” “Dreamgirl”). However, with “Emilia Perez,” wicked “and” a complete unknown “in the mix, the vote-division is a real possibility. If this happens, “Dune 2” can easily penetrate, copying “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” (2002), another sequel who cut the nomination of his predecessor in half. Perhaps it determines the “Return of the King” moment of the franchise for the platform for “Tibba 3”.

Is “any other land” still a documentary favorite?

BAFTA chose “Super/Man: The Christopher Reve Story”, which is not an Oscar-namine. This means that after the last four years, their normal future streak ends. To take “porcelain wars” and PGA “Super/Man” with DGA, the documentary race is still not clear. This can be the night coin-flip category.

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